Yong Zhou, the Director of Shandong Ecological Civilization Research Center and a researcher of Qilu University of Technology (Shandong Academy of Sciences) says: “In the past four years, we have used air quality monitoring data, meteorological data, and satellite data for big data analysis, referred to academic papers in domestic and foreign journals, established research networks or joint research groups with experts from many universities, scientific research institutions and enterprises, and studied the causes of haze for several years. In the spirit of haze governance, everyone has a responsibility. It is easy for people to question whether they want to find out the main cause of haze if they insist on letting "vulnerable groups" go-to enterprises or cities to verify some conclusions without seeing a lot of research data and conclusions in domestic and foreign academic journals. The discussion on the main causes and control methods of haze should allow anyone with some help to contribute their talents instead of monopolizing the haze control issues and prohibiting the discussion on the main causes of haze.

Firstly, the evolution process of flue gas treatment in power plants and industrial coal-fired power plants is briefly reviewed.

1. 2001-2006: PM2.5 mass concentration and coal consumption increased simultaneously, PM2.5, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides increased rapidly.

At this stage, with China's accession to the WTO, the economy develops rapidly, and coal consumption rises rapidly. The mass concentration of PM2.5, according to satellite lighting data and expert data, also increased rapidly. The haze of the North China Plain captured by the satellite gradually changed from light haze to heavy haze. 2006 became the peak year of SO2, soot, PM10, and PM2.5.

Due to the lack of corresponding flue gas control measures, coal consumption has a strong causal relationship with PM2.5 mass concentration at this stage and increases synchronously. At this stage, if we pay attention to coal control, we can curb the growth of PM2.5 mass concentration.

2. 2007-2012: PM2.5 mass concentration and coal consumption decoupling stage, desulfurization and dust removal electricity price increase policy played a decisive role.

Since 2007, the policy of price increase of desulfurization and dust removal electricity has played an important role, and the emission of sulfur dioxide has decreased significantly. The mass concentration of PM2.5 calculated by satellite lighting data and experts no longer increases with the increase of coal consumption, but gradually decreases in the wandering channel. To achieve this decoupling is a very important victory.

If the trend in 2006 continues, the number of days of fog and haze represented by visibility will increase soon. Although the nature of haze may be different from that of today's haze, the causes may be different, and it is more likely to be a gradual change than a sudden change.

At this stage, PM2.5 mass concentration and coal consumption have been decoupled. Grasping and controlling coal has begun to have little effect on curbing the growth of PM2.5 mass concentration. The changing trend of PM2.5 emission or mass concentration in Shandong Province is similar to that in other parts of northern China.

3. 2013 to now: haze outbreak and sustained stage, the days of haze, fog, and light fog hovered at a high level, although the days of heavy haze decreased, the mass concentration of PM2.5 decreased by 50%.

4. Taking Shandong province as an example, the number of haze and fog days doubled sharply in 2013 and 2014 for two consecutive years, and the total number of days with low visibility has not decreased much since the outbreak of haze.

5. Some achievements have been made in the treatment of haze with an iron fist, but the haze is still the same, only the blue sky has increased, the days of heavy haze have decreased greatly, and the mass concentration of PM2.5 has decreased by 50%.

6. The significant reduction of environmental capacity characterized by frequent haze is due to the sudden increase of unconventional pollutant concentration and emission, while the emission of conventional pollutants decreased significantly in the same period. The two become apparent causal relationships due to the defects of flue gas treatment facilities.

7. It's much easier to find the cause of the mutation before and after the very significant mutation than to find the minor changes in the environment after the haze outbreak. All kinds of reasons lead to missing the opportunity to quickly find the problem.

Compared with the change of several times, all conceivable conventional variables change relatively slowly. If we eliminate the slowly changing factors, we can lock in the mutation factors and confirm whether it is the root cause of the haze outbreak. However, due to human reasons, the lack of haze and fog days released by the meteorological department after 2012, and the lack of PM2.5 data monitored by the environmental protection department before 2013, missed the excellent opportunity to find the cause of haze through obvious mutation, leading to the continuous outbreak of haze until now.

Translator/Wang Lei

Original Chinese Article

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/Xa3SfZnLBoeOg0cK7V4lOw

Contribution

https://www.paypal.me/CBCGDFChina

http://www.cbcgdf.org/English/ConfirmDonaTion/0.html